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Fate of criminal case against Uralkali CEO will depend on Lukashenka's talks with Russian tycoon, analyst says

The fate of the criminal case against Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner depends on the results of talks between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Suleiman Kerimov, the Russian potash producer's largest shareholder, said Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky.

"If they reach agreement on mutually beneficial terms, Baumgertner will be released, if they don't agree, he will stay in prison," he said in an interview with Russia's radio station Kommersant FM.

The expert linked the arrest to Uralkali's de facto exit from Belarusian Potash Company, which he described as a breach of obligations to Belarus and Alyaksandr Lukashenka personally.

"Alyaksandr Lukashenka is an impulsive person, so he ordered Baumgertner taken hostage in order to get a more advantageous position in talks with Kerimov and the Russian side in general regarding the future fate of exports," Mr. Belkovsky said.

According to the Russian expert, Uralkali has long pushed for control over Belarusian petrochemical companies. "A big dispute broke out between former friends, which has led to what is happening now. I am very glad that the Union State of Russia and Belarus has proved once again to be a bluff, as Minsk has done that without asking Moscow's permission," he said.

He added that the case was part of a war for the potash market and control over the Belarusian petrochemical sector. "And in ex-Soviet countries the most important tool of fight is the arrest of a rival firm's top manager who is treated as a hostage," he said. //BelaPAN